A ceasefire is a sustained halt in fighting, not simply an announcement that commanders are taking a breather.
That creates a pretty big gap. Traders are pricing in around 50-50 odds that the U.S. won’t be able to contain its will to shoot for two whole weeks.
Most of the money is put into such conversations being delayed until next month.
Days later, prediction markets still doubted that Strait of Hormuz shipping would normalize because ships were still turning back.
The July 31 Polymarket contract can remain open into mid-August because the required 14-day no-strike period only needs to begin by July 31.
