Bitcoin Rebounds Before Fed Bombshell as Traders Brace for 30% Hike Odds

Bitcoin traded near $64,400 on Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. EDT, up roughly 1.6% over the previous 24 hours as positioning accelerated ahead of the Federal Reserve’s afternoon rate decision.

Market data on Wednesday shows bitcoin trading in the mid-$64,000 range, while daily volume holds between $24 billion and $25 billion. Market capitalization remains near $1.29 trillion with approximately 20.06 million BTC in circulation. The recovery only retraced part of July’s decline.

Bitcoin spent the first half of the month testing the $66,000 to $67,000 area before sellers gradually took control, eventually pushing the price toward the upper $63,000s. Even after Wednesday’s rebound, bitcoin remains roughly 45% to 49% below its October 2025 record just above $126,000, leaving longer-term sentiment cautious despite the intraday recovery.

Treasury yields also remain part of the equation. With 10-year yields holding in the mid-to-high 4% range and real yields elevated, capital has continued flowing toward interest-bearing assets. That backdrop has repeatedly limited bitcoin rallies throughout the summer, particularly once the price reaches obvious resistance levels.

The recent trading has also established well-defined levels. Buyers have repeatedly defended the $62,500 to $63,300 region, making it the first area to watch if selling resumes. Overhead, resistance between $64,500 and $65,000 has consistently attracted profit-taking, while the broader $66,800 to $67,000 zone remains the larger technical hurdle. Until one of those ranges breaks with conviction, short-term price action is likely to remain choppy rather than directional.

Other onchain metrics have softened. Transaction counts remain relatively high, but much of that activity continues to come from smaller OP_RETURN-related transactions instead of larger value transfers typically associated with broader network usage. Active addresses have also drifted toward 600,000 on a 30-day average, a pattern that generally reflects reduced participation rather than expanding demand.

Liquidity also remains concentrated. Binance, Bybit and Gate account for roughly 63% of perpetual open interest, with Binance alone representing about $22.86 billion, or approximately 35% of the market. That concentration means large moves in derivatives liquidity still originate from only a handful of venues, making those exchanges central to short-term price discovery.

The same exchanges also dominate the emerging market for perpetual contracts tied to traditional assets such as metals, oil, and equities. Although that segment has expanded rapidly to more than $2 billion since late May, it remains only a small fraction of the broader crypto derivatives market.

Once the Fed decision passes, attention will quickly shift to Thursday’s GDP and PCE inflation reports, both of which have the potential to reinforce or reverse whatever direction markets take after the FOMC meeting. Earnings from Coinbase and Strategy will add another layer of information about institutional demand and crypto-related business activity.