Saylor: Strategy Now Tracking Bitcoin’s 200-Week Average

Michael Saylor says Strategy is now tracking bitcoin’s 200-week moving average and its premium to that level, noting the price sits almost exactly on the line after trading above it 92% of the time historically.

Bitcoin broke below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2022 earlier this year, a move potentially tied to a jobs report that reset expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bitcoin has since clawed back toward that line, trading around $62,500 as of press time, which is roughly where Saylor’s “almost exactly on the line” comment places it.

During Strategy’s second-quarter earnings call, Saylor had already flagged the 200-week average as the right price signal to watch, describing it as a pretty up-and-to-the-right message and urging investors to treat a test of that level as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign. Adding a live premium tracker to the dashboard turns that talking point into a metric shareholders and outside analysts can watch in real time.

It bears mentioning that the tracker arrives as Strategy’s own bitcoin math has gotten more complicated given the company holds 843,775 BTC, bought for a combined $63.69 billion at an average price of $75,476 per coin (which means the current price of roughly $62,500 leaves Strategy’s overall position underwater on a cost-basis view even as the 200-week average signals long-term support).

Analysts have offered a cautious read on where bitcoin goes from the 200-week line while Saylor himself has pointed to a handful of factors holding the price back this cycle, including softer institutional flows and macro uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. That said, he maintains that the long-term trend line still favors buyers testing this level.