Michael Saylor told the backers of a contested Bitcoin proposal to “stand down” this week, days before a deadline that could split the network in two.
Key Takeaways
Saylor said BIP-110 has just 38 signaling blocks, or 2.70%, as of block 961,022.The proposal needs a 55% miner threshold to lock in, which Saylor called impossible.A mandatory signaling window opens near block 961,632, raising chain-split risk.“At 961,022, BIP-110 has 38 signals (2.70%). Its 55% voluntary threshold is impossible. At 961,632, BIP-110 nodes reject non-signaling blocks. Unless major miners reverse, Bitcoin continues normally while BIP-110 stalls or forks into irrelevance. Its backers should stand down.”
What BIP-110 Aims to Actually DoSupporters, centered around the Bitcoin Knots software and the Ocean mining pool, say the limits would ease the load on node operators and cut down on the fees driven up by data-heavy transactions. Critics, including Saylor, say the rules would let the network start judging the purpose of a transaction rather than just processing it.
Why the Math Doesn’t WorkFor BIP-110 to lock in through the normal path, 55% of Bitcoin’s mining power needs to signal support within a set window of blocks. As of block 961,022, only 38 blocks out of roughly 1,400 in the current period had signaled, a rate of about 2.7%. Major mining pools, including Foundry, AntPool, F2Pool and ViaBTC have not signaled at all.
That leaves the voluntary path closed. Saylor’s post makes the point directly: at the current pace, the 55% threshold cannot be reached before the window closes.
A Deadline That Could Split the NetworkBecause the voluntary threshold looks out of reach, BIP-110 moves into a second phase around block 961,632, projected for early August. At that point, nodes running the BIP-110 rules start rejecting blocks that don’t signal support for the change. Everyone else keeps following the existing rules.
Saylor’s Broader ArgumentHe compared Bitcoin’s consensus rules to a constitution that protects economic activity equally, warning that a precedent for filtering transactions by perceived purpose could later be used against privacy tools, custody methods or new financial contracts built on the network. A great deal of others have raised similar concerns about the proposal’s design.
What Onlookers Should Watch NextThe mandatory signaling window is expected to open around block 961,632, likely between Aug. 7 and Aug. 9, depending on how quickly blocks are mined. If no major mining pool reverses course, BIP-110 is expected to fail to gain control of Bitcoin’s main chain, with any enforcing nodes potentially splitting off on their own.
