Nine U.S. senators are asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit contracts tied to wildfire duration, growth and destruction, warning that state and local fire officials see a risk of arson. Polymarket responded, saying the removal would only make timely information harder to reach.
Key Takeaways
Nine Democratic senators asked the CFTC to prohibit wildfire event contracts by Aug. 14.Lawmakers cited $1.2M in trading tied to California’s 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires.Polymarket says the markets inform rather than exploit, and pulling them prevents nothing.Democratic Senators Want Wildfire Prediction Contracts Banned Over Arson Fears
The senators are asking whether the commission is considering prohibiting designated contract markets from offering wildfire event contracts as part of the rulemaking now underway, “given they are against the public’s interest,” and whether it has any plans to curb wildfire bets on prediction markets in the United States.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the senators wrote, adding there is “also the heightened risk – according to state and local fire officials – that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.”
The senators acknowledged in their letter that the wildfire contracts they identified appear to have been offered only through Polymarket’s international platform, which states on its own market pages that it operates independently from the CFTC-regulated Polymarket US. The request is therefore partly preemptive – as they put it, “it is only a matter of time before other U.S. based Designated Contract Markets try to offer these.”
The CFTC did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment.
