Polymarket traders now price the CLARITY Act at a 21% chance of becoming law this year. The Senate filed a cloture motion on Aug. 8 after missing its pre-recess vote, pushing the fight into September.
Key Takeaways
Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act at 21% to become law by Dec. 31.Galaxy Research previously cut its 2026 passage estimate from 50% to 30%.The Senate filed a cloture motion Aug. 8 without holding a floor vote.Introduced as H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) is a market structure bill that divides oversight of digital assets between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Senate negotiators merged the Banking and Agriculture committee versions into a 616-page text of 104 sections covering ethics, enforcement, custody, and stablecoin provisions.
What Are Senators Actually Fighting Over?Negotiators entered August with three open items: ethics enforcement, illicit finance provisions and stablecoin yield. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Galaxy expects at least two to vote against, leaving supporters near 50 dependable votes and short of the 60 required to break a filibuster.
Why Did the Senate Miss Its August Deadline?Opposition hardened as the recess approached, and the procedural vote never materialized. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated on Aug. 3 that the bill would reach the floor before the break, then confirmed on Aug. 6 that no August vote would occur, two days after Democrats signaled they would withhold cloture support absent movement on the three open items.
How Do Polymarket Prices Translate Into Odds?September returns senators to an unresolved text, a 60-vote threshold and ethics language no side has yet accepted. Payout on the contract requires more than a Senate floor win. The bill must clear Congress and receive a presidential signature before Dec. 31, leaving less than five months on the calendar and a considerably shorter congressional working window for those steps.
