Grayscale projects Ethereum’s annual supply inflation could shrink to roughly 0.4% and Solana’s to 1.1% by 2031 if two pending network proposals pass, pushing both issuance rates below gold’s roughly 1.8% annual supply growth.
Key Takeaways
Grayscale projects ETH inflation could fall to 0.4% and SOL to 1.1% annually by 2031 under two pending proposals.Ethereum’s EIP-8361 and Solana’s SIMD-0550/0553 target validator rewards and fee burns starting in 2026.Grayscale’s Zach Pandl says Solana’s plan has broader community support and better odds than Ethereum’s counterpart.For comparison, bitcoin’s own issuance schedule is already tracking toward a similar 0.4% rate by the same year.
The pitch behind both proposals is simple, i.e., slow the pace at which new tokens hit circulating supply, and scarcity should, in theory, support prices even as reward yields for validators and stakers shrink.
How Ethereum’s ‘Tapered Issuance’ Would WorkEIP-8361 would instead burn a rising share of validator rewards as the staking ratio climbs, phasing that burn to 100% once roughly 60.25 million ETH (about half of today’s supply) is staked, via an 18-month transition. Under the proposal’s own modeling, annual issuance would peak near 0.5% around a 20% staking ratio before declining toward zero as the network approaches that 50% threshold.
SIMD-0550 would double that yearly decline rate, compressing years of gradual reduction into a shorter runway toward Grayscale’s projected 1.1% by 2031. SIMD-0553 works from the other side, restructuring how transaction fees are burned so more SOL is permanently destroyed rather than recycled to validators.
Grayscale’s note is careful to add that, under current network conditions, the extra burn from SIMD-0553 is still modest compared with daily issuance, meaning SIMD-0550’s faster decline is doing most of the heavy lifting toward that 2031 estimate.
Not a Done Deal YetAs things stand, nothing is finalized yet as both EIP-8361 and the Solana SIMDs remain proposals working through their respective communities’ governance processes, and Grayscale’s numbers assume the changes take effect immediately and nothing else about network conditions shifts (a scenario the firm itself flags as unlikely to play out exactly as modeled).
He also noted that a scarcer circulating supply could support prices, potentially offsetting the reduction in staking income for validators and ETF holders alike, a trade-off stakers on both networks will be watching closely as the proposals move through review.
