Vaneck says bitcoin’s 11-month correction may be nearing its end, with 8 of 12 capitulation signals now firing and long-term holders shedding 356,000 BTC in just 30 days.
Key Takeaways
Vaneck’s Matthew Sigel says 8 of 12 bitcoin capitulation signals fired as of August 18.Long-term holders sold 356,000 BTC in 30 days, dropping their supply share below 60%.Vaneck projects a possible accumulation phase between September and November 2026.Bitcoin was trading around $64,500 at the time of the report, having spent most of the past two months range-bound between $58,000 and $66,500, a band that sits 48% below the cryptocurrency’s October 2025 all-time high of $126,300.
Long-term holder selling near the later stages of a drawdown is a pattern Vaneck and other analysts have flagged in prior cycles, since it typically reflects capitulation among investors who had been holding through the decline rather than fresh short-term speculation.
Lastly, Vaneck analysts noted that bitcoin is now roughly 11 months into its correction from the early October 2025 peak. Looking back at the cryptocurrency’s three previous bear markets, the firm calculated an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown, which would put a potential turning point somewhere between September and November of this year if the current cycle follows historical form.
Vaneck was careful to temper the bullish read, noting that prior periods where 8 to 12 of its signals fired simultaneously have historically produced average 90-day and 180-day forward returns that came in below bitcoin’s typical baseline performance, meaning capitulation signals are not a reliable short-term timing tool. On a longer horizon, though, Vaneck said forward one-year returns from buying near capitulation zones have tended to exceed typical price action in prior cycles, albeit based on a small sample size given bitcoin’s relatively short trading history.
