Bitcoin’s climb to multi-month highs ran on spot buying, not borrowed money, giving the rally a longer runway than a typical squeeze, Bitfinex analysts say. The coins now in profit could still trigger 2026’s largest wave of profit-taking.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin buyers from the past five months profit above $68,000.Coins sent to exchanges in profit are the rally’s biggest threat.Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $606 million on Aug. 20, the most since May.In a statement to Bitcoin.com News, Bitfinex analysts shared:
“Squeeze-led rallies usually carry a question mark over whether they hold, because liquidations do the lifting.”
“Here the combination of ETF demand, the macro shift and the absence of heavy selling gives this one a longer runway, with small retracements along the way,” they added.
What Pushed Yields Down and Bitcoin Up Spot Buying or Leverage: How to Tell the DifferenceOpen interest measures the total value of futures contracts left open, and it rises when traders add borrowed exposure. A rally that lifts price and open interest together is running on credit. One that lifts price while open interest lags is running on cash.
“The shape of the move is the tell. Rallies built on fresh leverage show open interest jumping in step with price. Price climbed 10 to 11 percent while open interest (OI) rose only around 4 percent, which points to spot buying and short covering doing the work, with leverage playing a minor role,” the exchange’s research desk noted, adding:
“The weaker version of this setup is open interest stacking up while price stalls, and that isn’t what happened.”
Why $68,000 Is the Line That Decides the Next MoveBuyers from the past five months share a cost basis in the $68,000 to $69,000 zone, the level Bitfinex flags as the most important line on the chart. Bitcoin trading above it keeps that cohort in profit and takes away the pressure that pushes underwater buyers to sell any bounce.
What US Buyers Have to Prove This WeekA full week at that pace would harden the support beneath the price and mark a real shift in demand structure, by the analysts’ reckoning. Aug. 20 was the fourth consecutive session of inflows. Whether the pace holds through the coming week decides how much of the rally has a floor under it.
What Could Stop the RallyThe Bitfinex team cautioned:
“The obvious risk is the volume of bitcoin sent to exchanges in profit during this move, which could turn into the largest profit-taking wave of the year if it lands.”
