Bitcoin’s current 50-week moving average, which lies near $82,470, has become a closely watched level for traders assessing whether the current bear market has ended. Historical data from Galaxy Research suggests a weekly reclaim has been far more reliable than shorter-term signals.
Key Takeaways
Galaxy says bitcoin’s 50-week average near $82,470 is the key bear-market recovery signal.Galaxy found bitcoin held 11 of 13 weekly reclaims, outperforming shorter-term signals.Bitcoin needs a weekly close above $82,000 to strengthen the case that June 30 marked the bottom.Bitcoin is approaching a technical level that has often separated bear-market rallies from durable recoveries.
Across those completed cycles, bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average 13 times. 11 of those moves held without the cryptocurrency later setting a lower closing low.
Galaxy Research stated:
“All eyes on bitcoin’s 50-week moving average.”
The level currently sits near $82,470. Bitcoin is trading around $77,190, about 30% above its June 30 low and roughly 6% below the weekly average, as of August 22, 8:50 ET.
Weekly Signal Has Outperformed Daily ReclaimsBy contrast, the eventual 50-week reclaim held for 945 days. “A bottom always produces a 50d reclaim, but a 50d reclaim does not prove a bottom,” Galaxy said.
Stronger Confirmation Comes With a CostThe trade-off is timing.
In bitcoin’s three longer bear markets, the first successful 50-week reclaim arrived between 130 and 284 days after the low. By then, BTC had already rallied between 63% and 80%.
The 2011 cycle was even more extreme. Bitcoin reclaimed the weekly average 51 days after bottoming, but had already gained 237%.
There are also exceptions. Bitcoin never fell below its 50-week moving average during the sharp 2013 downturn, while the May 2019 reclaim was followed by volatility around the Covid crash without a new bear-market low.
That makes the indicator useful, but not definitive.
