Bitcoin May Hit Turning Point This Week as Durable Bottom Takes Shape

Grayscale says bitcoin’s sharp weekly rally could mark a turning point after a relatively shallow bear market. Historical cycle comparisons and improving institutional demand suggest the market may be forming a more durable bottom.

Although short liquidations helped accelerate the advance, the move also coincided with renewed spot demand and ETF inflows. Grayscale stated:

“This week may be a turning point for bitcoin.”

The accompanying “Bitcoin Price by Cycle” chart indexes bitcoin at 100 at each cycle peak and tracks its subsequent performance by the number of days since that peak. The current cycle begins with the October 2025 high and extends through Aug. 20.

Grayscale stated:

“Historically, bitcoin has bottomed ~80% below its cycle peak price. In the latest bear market bitcoin fell ~50% from its peak, less than all prior cycles to this point.”

The comparison does not prove that the latest low will hold, but it indicates that the market has absorbed the downturn without repeating earlier losses of approximately 80%.

Those indicators do not provide reliable short-term confirmation of a bottom. Vaneck found that comparable signal clusters historically produced below-baseline average returns over 90 and 180 days. One-year performance exceeded bitcoin’s typical return, but the finding relied on a small group of heavily overlapping observations.

The inflows suggest that the rally extended beyond forced buying by short sellers, but they do not establish that another decline has been avoided. Higher interest rates, weaker liquidity, renewed fund redemptions, or profit-taking could still test the market’s latest gains.

Grayscale concluded:

“Markets were debating whether bitcoin would see another leg down in Q4 2026. While there are still risks, the rally this week may indicate we’ve reached a more durable bottom.”