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IBM Forecasts Quantum Computing 'Inflection Point' by 2029

By Sherry Cantwell
Dec 12, 2024
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IBM made a significant announcement on December 4, unveiling its latest quantum computing processor named "Condor" boasting a massive 1,121 qubits. This cutting-edge processor marks a substantial advancement in gate-based superconducting quantum systems and stands as IBM's most powerful quantum processor to date.

In conjunction with the Condor release, IBM also unveiled an updated roadmap that outlines its future quantum computing initiatives. The 1,121-qubit processor represents the pinnacle of IBM's previous roadmap, following the 433-qubit "Osprey" processor introduced in 2022 and the 127-qubit "Eagle" processor in 2021.

Quantum computing, unlike classical computing, doesn’t necessarily gauge its power or capability purely by the number of qubits. Although an increased number of qubits theoretically leads to more powerful systems, the industry currently concentrates on refining error correction and tolerance mechanisms.

IBM's focus currently resides in experimenting with 100-qubit systems, considering it the norm. Their efforts are dedicated to elevating the count of functional quantum gate processors, which are vital elements that determine the utility of a quantum system. IBM's quantum researcher and vice president, Jay Gambetta, highlighted this achievement in a recent blog post, emphasizing their ability to execute a quantum circuit comprising 100 qubits and 3,000 gates, which poses complex problems without pre-existing solutions.

Looking ahead, IBM envisions a significant milestone in 2029 with the "Starling" processor slated to perform "100 million gates with more than 200 qubits." Gambetta further outlined the trajectory, pointing to "Blue Jay" – a system projected to execute 1 billion gates on 2,000 qubits by 2033. These future advancements highlight IBM's commitment to continually push the boundaries of quantum computing capabilities.

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