Speculation abounds regarding the potential repercussions of the SEC's forthcoming decision regarding the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs before the January 10 deadline. The SEC has yet to confirm whether it will greenlight or reject multiple applications for spot BTC exchange-traded products currently under review. The committee faces a January 10 deadline to decide on the listing of shares for Bitcoin ETFs from ARK Invest and 21Shares.
Markus Thielen, in a January 3 report from 10x Research, suggested that despite the positive trend in Bitcoin prices, ETF applicants may not meet the prerequisites necessary for SEC approval. Thielen's research emerged amid discussions indicating the SEC's intentions to engage with prominent exchanges to finalize feedback on applications submitted by issuers of spot crypto ETFs. He expressed a differing viewpoint from the market consensus, suggesting a potential shortfall in meeting the SEC's approval criteria, potentially leading to rejections in January. Thielen emphasized the importance of positioning investments in anticipation of an event that could significantly impact prices.
Furthermore, analysts speculate that the SEC might greenlight offerings from ARK Invest and other entities within the next ten days, based on discussions with exchange representatives and legal precedents. A notable incident in October involved the SEC having to reassess Grayscale Investments’ spot Bitcoin ETF application after a judge ruled the initial rejection as “arbitrary and capricious.”
Some industry figures, like James Murphy, founder of Ludlow Street Advisors, anticipate multiple approvals on January 10, suggesting that the SEC's new grounds for possible rejection could be considered dubious by the court, potentially leading to sanctions against SEC attorneys. Despite several past applications from asset managers, the SEC has never sanctioned spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products for listing and trading on U.S. exchanges. The filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager in June 2023, reignited interest in the investment vehicle and prompted speculations on the necessity of action from the commission.
Following Thielen's report on January 2 predicting an SEC rejection of a spot Bitcoin ETF, Wu Jihan, founder of cryptocurrency trading platform Matrixport, clarified that the report was intended for the company's clients and not the general media.
