In Washington, D.C., the United States has observed notable shifts in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for bakery and cereal products. While the CPI for these goods had risen sharply by 13% in 2022, it continued its upward trend in 2023, although at a slightly lower rate of 8.4%. This increase in 2023 is significant when compared to the more modest rises in preceding years: 2.3% in 2021, 2.2% in 2020, 1.4% in 2019, and 0.4% in 2018, following decreases in 2017 and 2016.
Historically, such substantial increases in the CPI for these products have been rare over the past 40 years, with notable exceptions in 2008 (a 10.2% rise) and 1989 (an 8.4% increase), as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In a detailed look at various food categories, it's evident that all 18 categories covered by Milling & Baking News have experienced a rise for the second consecutive year, each by at least 5%. The cereal category, in particular, has shown robust growth in 2023, outpacing other food and beverage categories. For instance, the index for meat, poultry, fish, and eggs increased by just 1.8% in 2023, following a 10.9% increase the previous year. Similarly, the index for fruits and vegetables rose by 2.5% in 2023 after an 8.5% increase in 2022, and the index for milk, after a 14% surge in 2022, went up by only 0.6% in 2023. The overall All Commodity Index went up by 4.1% in 2023, which is a decrease from the 8% rise in 2022.
Breaking down the bakery product category, the price index for these products rose by 9% in 2023, following a 12.7% increase in 2022. In the bread sector, the index increased by 9.6% in 2023, with white bread seeing a 10.4% rise. Other breads also showed strong performance, with an 8.6% increase. The index for cakes, cupcakes, and cookies continued its upward trend, rising by 8.9% in 2023.
Other bakery products saw a 8.7% rise in their CPI, marking the fifth consecutive year of increases. Specific items like fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes, and donuts went up by 5.5%, biscuits and other biscuit products by 10.2%, and frozen/refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts, and turnovers by 8.9%.
The CPI for cereals and cereal products also increased by 7.2% in 2023. Flour and prepared mixes saw a 10.5% increase, breakfast cereals rose by 7%, and rice, pasta, and cornmeal by 6.2%.
Focusing on December, there was a softening in the bakery and cereal CPI, which fell by 0.7%. The December Cereals and Bakery Products Index, before seasonal adjustment, stood at 353.8% of the 1982-84 average. The food index for all households in December was 303, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% from November.
Breaking down the December figures further, the CPI for cereals and grain products was 283, a 1.3% drop from November. This includes flour and ready-mixed powder at 313.3 (down 1.4%), breakfast cereals at 273.8 (down 2.4%), and rice, pasta, and corn flour at 289.3 (down 0.1%).
The baked goods price index in December was 395.1, decreasing by 0.4% from November. Within this, the bread index was 239.7 (down 0.3%), with white bread at 436.4 (up 0.2%) and other breads at 464.9 (down 1%). The index for fresh biscuits, rolls, and waffles was 235.4 (down 2%), and the index for cakes, cupcakes, and cookies was 369.8 (down 0.2%).
Other specific indexes in December include fresh cakes and cupcakes at 392.2 (
down 0.4% from November), biscuits at 347.4 (up 1% month-on-month), and other baked goods at 352.8, which saw a slight increase of 0.2% from November. Detailed further, fresh rolls, coffee cakes, and donuts were indexed at 394.6 (up 0.2% from November), biscuits and biscuit products at 425.8 (up 0.8%), and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts, and turnovers at 342.7 (down 0.9% from November).
Overall, these statistics reflect the dynamic changes in the pricing of bakery and cereal products, highlighting significant increases in recent years, with a varied pattern of rises and falls across different product categories.
