Legend for on-chain analysis According to Willy Woo, BTC has not yet hit a macro bottom. Three points are intended to support his thesis. Does this perspective conflict with other on-chain analytics metrics? According to Willy Woo, a renowned on-chain analyst in the cryptocurrency industry, such is the case. He posted a number of tweets today to support his assertion. These three factors suggest that Bitcoin has not yet achieved its bottom price.
Has Bitcoin reached its bottom yet?
We have consistently mentioned evidence that show Bitcoin has already achieved, or is extremely close to reaching, the macro bottom of the current bear market in BeInCrypto's regular on-chain assessments. Four on-chain indications that, based on past data, appear to show that the bottom has been achieved were discussed in last week's research.
Hash Ribbons, Dormancy Flow, Puell Multiple, or Realized Losses are some of these indications. The MVRV Z-score has also recently experienced historical lows. Even the very recent Pi Cycle Bottom signal lends credence to the idea that BTC's macro-bottom has already been reached.
Have we reached the bottom?
Willy Woo, one of the most well-known and reputable on-chain analysts, produced a series of tweets today despite this evidence and the increasing layers of hopium. Have we bottomed? he said at the start of each one. And it appears that each one's content responds "no"!
Cost Basis is the first metric that Willy Woo brings up. He contrasts the cost basis of purchasing BTC for both short- and long-term holders there. It turns out that only when short-term holders achieved a lower cost basis than long-term holders did the historical bear markets of 2015 and 2019 reach their lowest points.
Woo adds that in 2019 exactly the same thing occurred. However, BTC's final capitulation in this space occurred in 2015 (red).
The blue line, which represents long-term investors, and the red line, which represents short-term holders, are not yet intersecting on the cost basis chart. When this occurs, Bitcoin might finally capitulate and dip below the current level of $17,622 to establish a macro bottom.
