On sports hedging.
"Exchanges are a better alternative because they expand liquidity and bring competition: multiple counterparties compete in an open marketplace to improve the price," Mansour wrote.
Decrypt has reached out to Kalshi for comment.
Prediction markets and regulatorsDespite being rivals, Kalshi and Polymarket are now effectively fighting the same regulatory battle, and until recently, the sector’s main federal backer has been the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has generally taken a lighter-touch approach to oversight.
CFTC Chair Brian Selig, a key ally for the platforms, announced that the agency will participate in ongoing prediction market lawsuits to assert federal jurisdiction and push back against state-level bans.
But the regulatory picture is getting more complex.
“Prediction markets are exactly one thing where there’s overlapping jurisdiction potentially,” Atkins said. He added that the SEC may not need new legislation to step in, noting: “A security is a security regardless of how it is.”
Still, the firm said it has not seen large-scale evidence that wash trading is distorting prices on major platforms.
