Bitcoin's long-term holders are buckling under pressure following this month’s sell-off, amid signs of a relatively weaker accumulation trend that could trigger a deeper correction.
Meanwhile, the 7-day exponential moving average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell below 1, a sign that veteran investors are now realizing losses.
Long-term holders are the market's strongest hands and have typically served as the last line of defense in previous cycles, helping form cycle bottoms as capitulation forced wealth transfers.
When such cohorts are underwater, the question arises: where is the next floor? Glassnode points to $54,000 as the next critical support level.
Recent macro data has done little to clarify the path forward.
Still, not everyone is convinced the floor will give way.
Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX, is arguing for the contrarian case that $60,000 will hold as the cycle floor in the near term, citing “healthy buying flows.” "This level has been defended by a massive wall of buyers who recently absorbed the capitulation of short-term holders," he told Decrypt.
The recent drawdown was "orderly deleveraging" that led to excess speculative capital rotating out of crypto without structural failure, he said.
