GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors are red but rebounding after a Sunday selloff; BTC at 66.4k Ethereum’s upcoming FOCIL upgrade will make it censorship-resistant Tether’s USDT supply down nearly $4B from local peak The Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $300M in net outflows last week TokenWorks S2 to debut today ️ Supreme Court Rules Against Trump TariffsThe ruling everyone has been waiting on finally dropped Friday.
But markets largely shrugged it off.
What HappenedChief Justice Roberts wrote in the majority that the administration’s reading of IEEPA would represent a “transformative expansion of the President’s authority over tariff policy” with no precedent in US history.
Trump called the ruling “anti-American” on Truth Social and within hours announced a new 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a completely different legal authority.
Bitcoin initially dipped to $66,900 on the release, then climbed to nearly $67,800, before settling back near $67,000. Equities actually grinded higher.
Then Sunday night, the selloff came. Bitcoin went as low as $64k, down nearly 5%, as ETH fell below $1,900 and SOL fell below $80.
Stock futures are opening red, with the Nasdaq down 0.7%.
️ What They’re Saying“A negative ruling on tariffs could potentially hurt Treasuries and the dollar, while favoring stocks and crypto.” - Stephen Coltman, Head of Macro, 21Shares
“Reduced tariff revenues mean money printing and debasement will accelerate.” - Matthew Sigel, Head of Research, VanEck
🧠 Why It MattersThe immediate crypto reaction, a 1-2% pop that evaporated in 90 minutes, is actually the most important data point here.
Markets had been pricing in this outcome for weeks.
Polymarket put the probability of an illegal ruling at 74% on Friday morning. Nobody was surprised by the ruling.
What caught people off guard was Trump coming back same-day with a 15% replacement tariff under a completely different legal authority.
For crypto, two narratives are forming and could potentially play out:
Short-term: tariff relief means lower inflation expectations, Fed rate cuts back on the table, risk-on (the relief rally thesis) Longer-term: if tariff revenue disappears and the deficit widens, the dollar weakens and money printing accelerates (the Bitcoin as monetary hedge thesis)Both of those are bullish.
But there is also a political component here. Any voter pushback against the tariff debacle, now deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, is likely to lead to more Democrat seats—which is likely a headwind to crypto policy passing (i.e. the Clarity Act). That is still several months away (and not a certainty), but the clock is certainly ticking.
Overall, some uncertainty has been removed but much more remains. We should know if a relief rally is coming by mid-March; else the crypto winter may indeed last another 6+ months as many project…
