Bitcoin's drop to $64,000 is the result of compounding macro shocks landing on a market carrying significant leverage—not a structural breakdown of the cycle, according to analysts.
The selloff tests whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact or if shifting macro conditions have permanently altered its trajectory, with experts pointing to trade policy, rates, and leverage as culprits, not broken fundamentals.
"Bitcoin's drop below $64,000 was not a single event," Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told Decrypt. "It was the result of several macro shocks landing over time on a market carrying significant leverage built up from its October 2025 all-time high."
Lucas pointed to President Trump's decision to raise global tariffs to 15% as the starting point, which rattled risk assets broadly. "Despite the 'digital gold' narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk asset," she said. "When macro fear spikes, capital rotates toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is not there yet."
The Federal Reserve’s inaction has compounded the pressure, with the odds of a no-rate-cut rising to 96%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, echoed the macro-driven diagnosis.
"Bitcoin's price fall does not suggest a structural breakdown but reflects a combination of macro-driven pressures, including renewed tariff escalations, risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto, and persistent negative ETF flows," he told Decrypt.
"Pessimistic rate cut expectations, fears of U.S. government shutdown, and now tariffs push prices down as trading entities recalibrate," Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Decrypt. "But this might also force miners to sell to keep operations going, as rewards are worth less than, or are very close to, production cost."
The conversation around four-year cycles has gone quiet, Lucas said, explaining that if the cycle holds, “2025 was the peak year, and 2026 represents the correction and base-building phase before the next accumulation cycle begins toward 2027 and 2028."
Despite a 50% drawdown from the cycle peak, Lucas maintains that Bitcoin’s cycle has “not broken” the trend and that "it is simply doing what it has always done."
Still, the near-term outlook isn’t optimistic, experts told Decrypt. They see an extension of the ongoing correction, but emphasize an intact structural foundation.
Ruck expects "eventual stabilization in the mid-$60,000 range followed by a gradual recovery," noting that historical patterns show Bitcoin often finds strong support at realized price levels during corrections before resuming upward momentum driven by its scarcity narrative and institutional adoption.
D'Anethan acknowledged that the realized price at $55,000 was “definitely not out of reach," considering the current uncertain environment. "One might point out that once you're 50% down, going sub-$60,000 won't make that much difference and might just be an even better time to be averaging in."
