Bitcoin saw a small rise ahead of President Donald Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday, as markets reacted to the administration's economic messaging and broader risk-on sentiment ahead of Nvidia earnings.
Trump opened by framing his first year back in office as a "turnaround for the ages," saying the country is "bigger, better, richer, and stronger" and pledging it will "never go back" to the previous administration's policies while highlighting tax cuts, tariff policy, and reduced inflation.
Still, Bitcoin's surge was not a direct result of Trump's speech, but rather "a combination of risk-on positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings and a relief bounce off the tariff and Supreme Court chaos from the prior week," Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt.
"Both of these had far more direct market relevance than anything said at the podium," he said.
Trump touted economic achievements during the address, stating that "inflation is plummeting" and "incomes are rising fast." He claimed his administration has driven core inflation down to its lowest level in five years, with a 1.7% decline over the last three months.
"Mortgage rates are the lowest in four years and falling fast," Trump added, noting the annual cost of a new mortgage is down nearly $5,000 from a year ago.
The President also pointed to stock market performance, stating that the market has set "53 record highs since the election" and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 50,000 "four years ahead of schedule."
Lim cautioned that the 53 record highs figure "obscures what really happened in between."
When Trump announced his tariff regime in April 2025, the Dow briefly tumbled below 37,000—roughly 18% off its peak. He also noted that the Dow 50,000 milestone "definitely didn't hold," with the index retreating below that level by February 16 and trading around 49,174 on the night of the speech.
Trump credited tariffs as a key driver, saying they brought in "hundreds of billions of dollars" and enabled favorable economic and national security deals.
Despite the setback, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to the policy, stating that "these powerful, country-saving, peace-protecting tariffs will remain in place under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes, leading to a solution that will be stronger than before."
The Nasdaq 100 closed Tuesday 268 points higher, boosted by gains in Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Google, as investors await Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings.
Lim believes the earnings call is “the single most important catalyst in the window” with the equity and crypto markets “positioning around this event.”
Trump’s Tuesday address, meanwhile, is widely seen as a midterm messaging play ahead of November elections. Republicans want to use it to define their agenda on cost of living, border security, and economic performance.
