The crypto industry’s most important US market structure bill is entering a narrowing window in Washington, with Galaxy Digital putting the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at roughly 50-50. The firm’s central argument is not that one issue alone threatens the bill, but that too many unresolved questions still need to be settled in sequence, on a calendar that is quickly tightening.
May Could Be The Last Chance For Crypto’s CLARITY ActGalaxy framed the bill’s prospects in unusually blunt terms: “In our view, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 are roughly 50-50, and possibly lower, though others at Galaxy are more optimistic. The uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the number of unresolved questions that must be settled, in sequence, under severe time pressure.”
The report argues that a markup in early or mid-May would still leave a viable path, but not much margin for error. “If the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of enactment in 2026 drops sharply,” Galaxy wrote. “The remaining legislative calendar simply does not easily accommodate the full five-step process described above, particularly given the competing demands on floor time.” In the firm’s view, a July floor vote is still theoretically possible, but only with “extraordinary political will and coordination.”
The procedural burden is significant. From committee markup, the bill would still need to clear a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, then be reconciled with the Agriculture Committee’s version, then reconciled again with the House-passed CLARITY Act, before reaching the president’s desk. Galaxy said each step consumes time that the Senate may not have in abundance, especially with Iran military authorization debates, the unresolved DHS funding standoff, and a backlog of nominations competing for floor space.
Galaxy also made clear that stablecoin yield is only part of the problem. The note highlighted several other live issues in Senate negotiations, including the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act’s protections for noncustodial software developers, ethics provisions related to government officials’ crypto holdings, concerns over Section 505’s impact on SEC exemptive relief for tokenization, and the political question of SEC commissioner vacancies. None of those is necessarily fatal on its own. Together, they create a far more fragile timeline.
“I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May,” he said.
It also warned that the post-midterm outlook could be materially worse. A change in control of either chamber, Galaxy said, would likely produce different committee chairs, different priorities, and a much less hospitable path for crypto legislation.
That is why the near-term milestones now matter so much. Galaxy said the next signals to watch are the release of Tillis’s revised stablecoin text, Chairman Tim Scott’s markup announcement, the size and bipartisan character of any committee vote, and whether Senate leadership allocates floor time before the July 4 recess.
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.58 trillion.
