Bitwise is looking past Bitcoin’s recent slide and toward a much larger pressure point: close to $30 trillion in global debt that needs refinancing in 2026.
The firm said higher Japanese government bond yields and a warning from the IMF about waning demand for government debt could push markets into a tighter corner, a setup Bitwise believes may eventually favor Bitcoin.
Debt Pressure Returns To Center Stage
Bitcoin recovered above $80k in May 2026 before stalling at the $80k–$85k bull-bear threshold and subsequently falling to $72k. ETP outflows, sovereign bond stress, and record hodling defined the month.
A Tough Range For TradersBitwise called that zone the market’s main dividing line. It said price action around that range will keep shaping whether traders view the market as healthy or fragile.
Holding Patterns Keep Tightening SupplyEven with weaker demand, Bitwise said the supply side is moving in a tighter direction. Long-term investors now hold a record 14.85 million BTC, or about 73% of the circulating supply.
The firm added that 60% of Bitcoin has not moved in more than a year, 48.5% for more than two years, 42.8% for more than three years, and 33% for at least five years. That kind of inactivity, Bitwise said, is squeezing available supply while buyers have been slower to return.
The report also argued that Bitcoin still looks cheap beside major US tech stocks. It said Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits below its long-run average, while the Nasdaq 100’s price-to-book reading is near record highs.
Price Levels Still MatterBitwise pointed to $78,000 to $80,000 as the key area to watch, with $83,000 to $85,000 marked as the first major ceiling. It listed $73,000 as important support and $95,000 as the next upside target.
Featured image from FXStreet, chart from TradingView
