IBM Quantum and Microsoft have formed a consortium with non-profit research institute MITER, UK cryptography firm PQShield, Google sibling SandboxAQ and the University of Waterloo to tackle post-quantum cryptography. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) addresses the potential threats posed by future quantum computers. Current cryptographic schemes rely on mathematical problems to thwart decryption attempts.
It is nearly impossible to crack or bypass this encryption with a conventional computer. Some experts estimate that it would take a binary computer system about 300 trillion years to crack a 1,024-bit or 2,048-bit RSA key.
Named after the computer scientist who first discussed it, RSA is largely considered the encryption standard.
In theory, however, a quantum computer with sufficient hardware and architecture should be able to break RSA and similar encryption schemes in weeks, days, or even hours. According to a MITER press release:
"Preparing for the PQC transition includes developing algorithm standards; creating secure, reliable, and efficient implementations of these algorithms; and integrating new post-quantum algorithms into cryptographic libraries and protocols."
Technologies such as blockchain and cryptocurrencies that rely on mathematical encryption may be particularly vulnerable to decryption attacks by future theoretical quantum computers. However, it is unclear how long it would take for such a threat to materialize.
A study conducted in 2022 determined that a quantum computer with 300 million qubits — a very common measure of a quantum system’s potential processing power — would be needed to crack the Bitcoin blockchain fast enough to cause any damage. By comparison, today’s most advanced quantum computers average just over 100 qubits.
However, based on the architecture described in the paper, more advanced qubit arrangements, chipsets, and optimization algorithms could significantly change the calculus involved and exponentially reduce the theoretical 300 million qubit requirement. As a result, the global technology community is turning to quantum-safe encryption.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has selected four proposed post-quantum encryption algorithms in 2022—CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, SPHINCS+, and Falcon—as candidates for the PQC secure encryption standard. On August 24, 2023, NIST announced that three of the algorithms had been accepted for standardization, with a fourth algorithm, Falcon, expected to follow in 2024.
Now that these algorithms have been accepted and (mostly) standardized, the consortium will begin its mission to leverage the deep knowledge and practical experience accumulated by its members to ensure that key institutions such as governments, banks, telecommunications and transportation services can transition from current to post-crypto Quantum encryption.
