A report from the UK's National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) warns that artificial intelligence (AI) is set to significantly increase cyber threats, particularly in the form of ransomware attacks, over the next two years. The report acknowledges that while AI can enhance cybersecurity by improving detection capabilities and design, it emphasizes the need for further research to assess how AI advances in cybersecurity will mitigate the impact of threats. The NCSC report points out that AI's impact on cyber threats will likely favor advanced state actors with greater access to sophisticated AI-driven cyber operations.
Ransomware attacks involve deploying malware to encrypt a victim's files or entire system, with attackers demanding a ransom, typically in cryptocurrency, for the release of decryption keys or tools to restore data access. The report notes that AI, particularly generative AI, will significantly enhance social engineering capabilities, making phishing attacks more convincing and challenging to detect. Generative AI can create realistic interactions, such as documents that mimic individuals, without the typical errors found in phishing attempts.
National Crime Agency threat director James Babbage supports this view, stating that AI services reduce barriers to entry, increase the number of cybercriminals, and enhance their capabilities in terms of scale, speed, and effectiveness of attack methods. The NCSC assessment highlights challenges to cyber resilience posed by AI models, including generative AI and large language models, which make it challenging to verify the legitimacy of emails and password reset requests. The report suggests that as AI models become more widespread, factors such as expertise, resources, and high-quality data will become less critical.
While leveraging advanced AI in cyber operations currently requires expertise and resources, capable state actors are best positioned to harness AI's potential. The report predicts modest capacity improvements for other state actors and commercial companies over the next 18 months. It also anticipates increased accessibility to AI web tools as capable groups monetize them, allowing improved functionality for those willing to pay. The report underscores the growing volume, complexity, and impact of cyber operations, emphasizing the need for governments to harness AI's potential while managing associated risks. In response to the heightened threat, the UK Government is investing £2.6 billion in 2022 as part of its Cyber Security Strategy to enhance the country's resilience.
